http://us.oneworld.net/external/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ens-newswire.com%2Fens%2Faug2003%2F2003-08-07-01.asp
August 9, 2003
Kyoto Protocol Called Inadequate to Halt
Global Warming
CAPTION:
"Factories, like this one in Northumberland, England,
produce greenhouse gas emissions by burning fossil fuels."
(Photo by Ian Britton courtesy FreeFoto)
CAPTION:
"Wind turbines like this one at the Kirkheaton Wind Farm,
Northumberland, are becoming a more common site across the UK."
(Photo courtesy FreeFoto)
LONDON, United Kingdom,
August 7, 2003 (ENS) - The Kyoto climate
protocol will not deliver the deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions
scientists say are necessary to control global warming, according
to research published today as temperatures soared and heat records
were broken across Europe. Londoners experienced the hottest day
in the city's history Wednesday, and the heat wave is forecast
to continue at least into next week.
The new study published
in "New Economy," the journal of the
London based Institute for Public Policy Research, contends
that the Kyoto approach is "flawed." It advises that
future
international climate policy must be based on global agreements
on a safe level of global greenhouse gas emissions and
convergence towards equal ownership of the atmosphere.
Tony Grayling, the
institute's associate director and guest
editor of "New Economy," said, "Kyoto will not
stop climate
change. The next international climate change negotiations
must agree on a safe level of emissions in the long term and
fair shares between nations."
"In practice,"
Grayling said, "this should mean contraction of
global emissions and convergence towards equal per capita emissions
rights. This approach also has a better chance of bringing America,
Australia and the developing nations on board."
Calling the Kyoto Protocol
an important first step, Grayling
points out that even with full implementation the Kyoto Protocol
delivers only a one to two percent cut in emissions from industrial
nations while total global emissions will increase by 70 percent
over the same time period.
The 1997 Kyoto Protocol
is an international agreement under
the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change which requires
37 industrialized countries, known as Annex I Parties,
to reduce their emission of six greenhouse gases an average
of 5.2 percent of 1990 emissions baseline during the five year
period 2008-2012.
The rules for entry
into force of the Kyoto Protocol require
55 Parties to the Convention to ratify the Protocol, including
Annex I Parties accounting for 55 percent of that group’s
carbon dioxide emissions in 1990. To date, xx countries
covering 44.2 percent of the emissions target have ratified
or otherwise accepted the protocol.
Under the administration
of President George W. Bush,
the United States backed out of the Kyoto Protocol originally
signed under President Bill Clinton. With about five percent
of the world's population, the United States emits some
25 percent of the world's greenhouse gases.
The world is now watching
the Russian Federation, with its
17.5 percent of the emissions target. The Russian parliament,
the Duma, is expected to vote on ratification this year.
That vote may come in time for the World Climate Change
Conference scheduled to be held in Moscow from September 29
through October 3.
But even if the Kyoto
Protocol does come into force,
the greenhouse gas reductions it requires will barely
make a dent in the blanket of heat trapping gases forming
in the Earth's atmosphere, says the top Australian government
climate scientist.
In a paper released
Monday for the ongoing Internet conference
In Search of Sustainability, Dr. Graeme Pearman, chief atmospheric
research scientist with CSIRO, the government science body,
says slowing the rate of emissions of carbon dioxide into
the atmosphere will not stop the increase of its concentration
and as a result will not affect climate change.
Scientists know, Pearman
wrote, "that when a molecule of
carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere, it effectively
resides there for almost 100 years. The very important message
arising out of this finding is that slowing the rate of emissions
of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere will not stop the increase
of its concentration and thus climate change.
"We can show that
reductions of 70 percent or more in current
global emissions are necessary in order to stablize concentrations,"
Pearman wrote.
"This challenge
is so demanding that one can safely conclude
that there is no single solution," he wrote. "Rather,
there
is a need for a portfolio of activities that each delivers
part of the answer."
On July 28, climate
scientists at the UK Meteorological
Office (Met Office) released a report outlining new evidence
that humans are to blame for climate change, not only on the
global level, but over individual continents as well.
Scientists from the
Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate
Prediction and Research have compared temperature rises
since the beginning of the last century, over six continents,
with simulations from climate models. They believe that
the effect of human caused greenhouse gases can be seen
over the past few decades in every continent, including
Europe, but is especially clear over North America,
South America and Africa.
Dr. Peter Stott, who
leads the team at the Hadley Centre,
said, "The continental warming of the past few decades
cannot be explained by natural factors such as solar changes,
volcanoes or natural variability. But once we factor in
the effects of human activity, we find we can explain the
warming that is observed."
Global average temperatures
have risen by about 0.6 - 0.7 degrees
Celsius over the last 100 years. "Identifying the effect
of
human activity on the global scale is difficult due to the
noise' of natural climate variability - on a continental scale
the noise is even greater," Stott said.
Dr. Stott has used
the Hadley Centre's climate model together
with advanced "optimal detection" analyses, to show
that the
effects of greenhouse gases from human activity, such as
carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, can be detected.
He also showed that cooling from sulphate aerosols, small
particles also generated from fossil fuel emissions,
counteracts some, but by no means all, of the greenhouse
warming.
This issue of "New
Economy" includes an article by Sir Tom Blundell,
chair of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP),
supporting the contraction and convergence approach to limiting
climate warming to no more than two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees
Fahrenheit).
This approach was the
basis of the RCEP’s recommendation for a
60 percent cut in UK carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. In an
energy policy paper published in February, the Blair government
adopted the RCEP recommendation on carbon dioxide emissions
as an "aspiration" but did not acknowledge the contraction
and convergence approach behind it.
"Given the dire
consequences and irreversibility of climate
change, we should be guided by the precautionary approach,"
wrote Margaret Beckett, UK secretary of state for environment,
food and rural affairs, in "New Economy."
"In my view,"
Beckett wrote, "this means adhering to a course
of action that will keep temperature increases to no more
than two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels."
John Whitelegg, professor
of sustainable development
at York University and a senior policy advisor to the
Green Party UK, says the government is still not addressing
climate change seriously enough. He said, "The world needs
to cut CO2 emissions by 60 percent by 2050, and that means
Britain cutting by more like 90 percent."
Copyright Environment News Service (ENS) 2003. All Rights Reserved.
