http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0806-01.htm

Published on Wednesday, August 6, 2003 by the Guardian/UK
Global Warming May Be Speeding Up, Fears Scientist
Alarm at 'unusual' heatwaves across northern hemisphere

by John Vidal

One of Europe's leading scientists yesterday raised the possibility
that the extreme heatwave now settled over at least 30 countries
in the northern hemisphere could signal that man-made climate change
is accelerating.

"The present heatwave across the northern hemisphere is worrying.
There is the small probability that man-made climate change
is proceeding much faster and stronger than expected," said
Professor John Schellnhuber, former chief scientific adviser
to the German government and now head of the UK's leading
group of climate scientists at the Tyndall center.

Prof Schellnhuber said "the parching heat experienced now"
could be consistent "with a worst-case scenario [of global
warming] that nobody wants to come true". He warned that
several months' research would be needed to analyze data
from around the world before scientists could say why the
heatwaves are so intense this year.

"What we are seeing is absolutely unusual," said Prof
Schellnhuber. "We know that global warming is proceeding
apace, but most of us were thinking that in 20-30 years
time we would be seeing hot spells [like this].
But it's happening now. Clearly extreme weather
events will increase."

Other climate scientists across Europe suggested the
present heatwave was perhaps the most intense experienced
and linked to global warming.

"We've not seen such an extended period of dry weather
[in Europe] since records began," said Michael Knobelsdorf,
a meteorologist at the German weather service. "What's
remarkable is that these extremes of weather are happening
at such short intervals, which suggests the climate is
unbalanced. Last year in Germany, we were under water.
Now we have one of the worst droughts in human memory."

Antonio Navarra, chief climatologist at Italy's National
Geophysics Institute, said the Mediterranean region was
2-3C warmer than usual this summer.

Temperatures across parts of Europe have been a consistent
5C warmer than average for several months, but the heatwaves
have extended across the northern hemisphere. Temperatures
in some Indian states reached 45-49C (113-120F), with more
than 1,500 people dying as a direct result. There have been
near-record temperatures in Canada and the US, Hawaii,
China, parts of Russia and Alaska.

The intense heat in some places has given way to some
of the most severe monsoon rains on record, a phenomenon
also consistent with climate change models which predict
extremes of weather. The heatwaves are fueling concern
that climatologists may have underestimated the temperature
changes expected with global warming. According to the
UN's intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC)
- the consensus of the world's leading 2,000 climatologists
- the expected increase is up to 5C over the next century.

But a recent conference of leading atmospheric scientists
in Berlin concluded that the IPCC's models may have
underestimated the cooling effect of atmospheric soot,
the airborne industrial waste of the past. The upper limit
of global warming, they suggested, should range between
7C and 10C, which would severely affect food and water
supplies, traumatize most economies, and fundamentally
change everyday life.

The UN's World Meteorological Organization warned last month
that extreme weather events would become more frequent.
Yesterday Ken Davidson, director of the WMO's climate program,
said: "The world is seeing a change in general conditions
and in extremes. We are trying to understand if it's getting
more frequent."

Climate scientists at the British government's Hadley center.
last week said they had new evidence that the heatwave
affecting Europe and North America could not be explained
by natural causes, such as sunspots or volcanoes, but must
be partly due to man-made pollution.

Yesterday Dr Peter Stott, who led the research team, said:
"Once we factor in the effects of human activity, we find
we can explain the warming that is observed. Now we have
gone a step further and shown that the same thing is
happening on the scale of continents."

Europe battles drought and fire

· The death toll from Portugal's biggest wildfires
in decades rose to 11 after two bodies were found
in charred woodland, but cooler overnight temperatures
enabled firefighters to contain all but three major blazes

· 13 Spaniards have died in the heatwave, and 30 taken
to hospital because of the heat in Cordoba, Seville and
Huelva in Andalusia

· Parisians thronged the bank of the river Seine which has been
turned into an urban beach with sand, cafes, deckchairs and
palm trees as the temperature in the capital neared 40C (104F)
again yesterday

· Amsterdam zoo fed its chimpanzees iced fruit and sprayed
ostriches with cold water to keep them cool as temperatures
in the Dutch capital edged towards 30C (86F), the Dutch news
agency ANP reported

· Italy's national electricity grid said it had cut power
to some big industrial customers amid soaring demand
from air conditioners

· Polish fire crews battled 35 forest fires on Monday and
about a quarter of the country's woodlands were at serious
risk of fire after temperatures topped 30C (86F) for much
of July, authorities said

· In southern Bosnia, mines left over from the 1992-95 war
have barred firefighters from coming to grips with a fire
that has raged for three days near Mostar

© Guardian Newspapers Limited 2003

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