http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,871087,00.html
[ See
also "The World in the 2050's", assuming "Business
As Usual"... ]
One generation to save world, report warns
Influential body says last chances must be seized
Paul Brown, environment
correspondent
Thursday January 9, 2003
The Guardian
The human race has
only one or perhaps two generations to rescue
itself, according to the 2003 State of the World report by the
Washington-based Worldwatch Institute.
The longer that no
remedial action is taken, the greater
the degree of misery and biological impoverishment that
humankind must be prepared to accept, the institute says
in its 20th annual report.
Overuse of resources,
pollution and destruction of natural
areas continue to threaten life on the planet. Conditions
continue to deteriorate rapidly, the report says, although
there are some hopeful signs in that technical solutions
to the problems have been found and - where there is
political will - adopted. In most cases, though, nothing
is being done.
Among the worst trends
worldwide is that 420 million people
live in countries which no longer have enough crop land
to grow their own food and have to rely on imports.
Around 1.2 billion people, or about a fifth of the
world's population, live in absolute poverty - defined
as surviving on the equivalent of less than $1, or 62p, a day.
About one quarter of
the developing world's crop land
is being degraded, and the rate is increasing. The greatest
threat is not a shortage of land, says the report,
but a shortage of water, with more than 500 million
people living in regions prone to chronic drought.
By 2025 that number
is likely to have increased
at least fivefold, to between 2.4bn and 3.4bn.
A probable world population increase of 27% over
the same period will create social and ecological
instability.
Global warming is accelerating,
and carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere has reached 370.9 parts per million,
the highest level for at least 420,000 years and probably
for 20m years.
Toxic chemicals are
being released in ever-increasing
quantities, and global production of hazardous waste
has reached more than 300m tonnes a year. There is only
a vague idea of what damage this does to humans and
natural systems, the report says.
Another threat is the
movement of highly invasive species
to regions where they may pose problems to native species.
The state of the world's
natural life support system
is perhaps the most worrying indicator for the future,
says the report. About 30% of the world's surviving
forests are seriously fragmented or degraded, and they
are being cut down at the rate of 50,000sq miles a year,
it says.
Wetlands have been
reduced by 50% over the last century.
Coral reefs, the world's most diverse aquatic systems,
are suffering the effects of overfishing, pollution,
epidemic diseases and rising temperatures.
A quarter of the world's
mammal species and 12% of the
birds are in danger of extinction.
On the hopeful side,
the report says that renewable
energy technologies have now developed sufficiently
to supply the world. They could significantly reduce
the threat to the world from pollution - but currently
there is a lack of political will to introduce them
fast enough.
Another industry which
causes widespread destruction,
mining for minerals, could be largely replaced by
re-use and recycling.
Mining consumes 10%
of the world's energy, spews out
toxic emissions, and threatens 40% of the world's
undeveloped forests but these effects could be
drastically reduced.
Another crisis which
the report identifies is in the
world's cities, where one billion people seek shelter
in shanty towns, often on hillsides, flood plains,
in rubbish dumps or downstream of industrial polluters.
The inhabitants of
these settlements live at constant
threat of eviction, but also of natural disasters and
disease. Urban centres in the south now dominate the
ranks of the world's largest cities.
Slum dwellers are organising
for greater rights and
better lives, the report says. One of the great challenges
for governments is to help their poorest citizens feel
secure in their own homes, make a living and improve
their environment.
Dark clouds,
silver linings
Worst trends
· Malaria claims
7,000 lives every day
· Bird extinctions
running at 50 times natural rate
· Global rate
of ice melt more than doubled since 1988;
sea levels may rise 27cm by 2100
· New fishing
technologies help to locate and further
exploit declining stocks
Reasons for
hope
· Populations
have stabilised in Europe and much of south-east Asia
· Organic farming
is the fastest-growing sector of world
agricultural economy
· Wind and photovoltaic
electricity generating capacity
to increase 30% a year for five years (1% for fossil fuels)
· Production
of ozone-depleting CFCs fell 81% in the 90s,
slowing growth in ozone hole
