http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0117/p15s01-bogn.html
from the January 17,
2002 edition
THE
FUTURE OF LIFE
By Edward O. Wilson
Alfred A. Knopf, 229 pp., $22
Earth in the balance
- could tilt either way
By Colin Woodard
Life on Earth stands
at a significant crossroad. Over the past
10,000 years, Homo sapiens have been wildly successful, colonizing
continents, defeating a great proportion of natural enemies, and
replacing forests, grasslands, and swamps with agricultural fields,
roadways, and cities. Since 1960, our population has doubled to
6 billion; despite a slowing rate of growth, it will probably
peak
at between 8 and 10 billion later this century.
We also live in the
midst of a mass extinctions, the greatest
extermination of living species since the end of the dinosaurs.
Estimates for current extinction rates range from 100 to
10,000 times prehuman levels, with most around 1,000 times
the natural level. Whatever the rate, it is projected to rise
steeply as remaining wild land is developed and nonindigenous
species are introduced through human commerce.
What's at stake in
the 21st century, Edward O. Wilson argues
in "The Future of Life," is nothing less than the integrity
of the planet and the magnificence of life itself. At current
rates, half of the Earth's plant and animal species will cease
to exist by the end of the century, forever impoverishing the
human experience, materially and spiritually.
Wilson's pronouncements
carry a great deal of weight. Wilson,
an expert on biodiversity, is widely regarded as one of the
world's greatest living scientists. A Harvard professor for
more than four decades, he has received many of the world's
top prizes in science and conservation, and has written two
Pulitzer Prize-winning books, as well as the best-selling
"The Diversity of Life" (1992).
He's also a beautiful
and gifted writer, able to accurately
convey not only the content of scientific research, but also
its broader social, political, and moral implications.
While grounded in vigorous, peer-reviewed science,
"The Future of Life" is elegant and moving, a pleasure
to read despite the gravity of its message.
Wilson argues that
the central challenge facing humanity
in the new century is to raise the standard of living of
the world's growing poor, while preserving as much of the
rest of life as possible. He's optimistic that by 2100 our
impact on the biosphere will begin to wane, largely because
our population will finally be shrinking, instead of rising.
But between now and then, humanity - and the rest of life
- must pass through what Wilson calls "the bottleneck,"
a time of intensifying population and environmental pressures.
The stakes are enormous.
People are threatened
because we may overwhelm the natural
systems we depend on. China, the epicenter of population
pressure, is already backed against a wall. More people
require more food and irrigation, but the country is using
up its freshwater supply. Since 1972, the lower Yellow River
has gone bone dry for part of every year - 226 days in 1997
- resulting in billions of dollars in crop losses. From
1965 to 1995, Beijing's water table fell by 32 feet, and
nearly half of China's 617 cities now suffer water shortages.
There are lots of practical
reasons to protect the natural
world. By one estimate, it provides humanity with $33 billion
a year in free ecosystem services including resource production,
climate regulation, and pollution removal. In recent years,
many rare or nearly extinct species have been discovered to
contain chemical or genetic innovations that can be used to
treat diseases or improve crop production. Biodiversity is
worth a great deal to our pocketbooks alone.
But Wilson provides
an additional and, to my mind, more
compelling argument: We evolved in nature, and its presence
is part of what it is to be human. Using evidence from human
genetics, cognitive science, child development, and theology,
Wilson shows that our species is hardwired to need - perhaps,
love - the natural world from which we sprung. "To conserve
biological diversity is an investment in immortality,"
he writes, as it serves as a survival mechanism for ourselves
and our species.
Wilson concludes that
our species must embrace our role as
nature's mind, as stewards over the rest of life with which
we evolved. He then outlines a strategy to protect most of
the remaining ecosystems and species.
Among the key elements:
- Preserve the world's
hotspots and the great forests of Canada,
Russia, and the tropics.
- Cease logging of
old-growth forests.
- Support population
planning and sustainable development policies.
"In
the end ... success or failure will come down to an ethical
decision," Wilson writes, "one on which those now living
will
be judged for generations to come."
- Colin Woodard is
author of "Ocean's End:
Travels Through Endangered Seas" (Basic).
